Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 81715.881697 86250.565582 90782.074897 95646.939772 100718.537112 105846.471341 111419.935497
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 73784.073665 80696.061032 87795.688265 95622.860340 103999.599738 112685.292447 122361.676130
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 69034.666438 77640.760194 86672.308476 96835.769841 107932.825419 119659.781656 132967.425672
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 64339.173229 74110.020034 84552.945830 96509.679457 109784.884183 124035.910365 140454.476132
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 61697.479799 72538.556197 84307.433741 97981.131750 113377.452724 130123.643728 149660.279981
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 59125.731214 70825.231922 83707.037791 98872.660491 116164.999820 135194.066208 157641.441165
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 56380.342821 68732.594112 82514.592067 98940.524306 117889.040161 138965.396935 164081.177911
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 53807.361312 66691.748281 81247.817238 98796.681619 119260.649557 142249.405468 169900.841886
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 52608.923321 66175.078288 81671.835927 100545.067908 122763.269182 147939.771604 178469.363745
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 51508.414276 65701.956043 82085.595482 102229.793581 126155.600816 153486.524680 186878.888746
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 50003.167794 64667.367084 81769.199425 102993.450042 128421.177820 157696.091454 193724.892247
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 48141.608068 63122.031121 80772.216388 102880.168099 129593.499924 160585.802297 199000.716651
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 46616.549827 61960.054621 80221.387990 103303.218732 131426.932845 164300.721865 205330.289761
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44968.285634 60588.428227 79367.039975 103317.327571 132740.793129 167388.285803 210925.776797
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 44066.079990 60113.316695 79582.493228 104616.443194 135600.376103 172327.427081 218758.689367
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 42425.149696 58641.567701 78507.334680 104271.391049 136408.561475 174767.126422 223568.668852
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41786.110369 58424.777268 78980.065010 105837.212831 139563.956813 180060.016124 231861.043666
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40902.735185 57856.623565 78979.772810 106785.621961 141939.555731 184400.500864 239008.659074
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39673.283035 56794.305507 78313.128103 106857.823999 143195.346359 187352.470267 244454.544366
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 38408.432281 55644.338433 77496.760122 106704.830980 144140.410549 189903.577094 249401.843700
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 38074.785703 55718.917772 78253.020228 108564.308270 147634.918796 195634.145735 258319.049978
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37732.145448 55764.891380 78960.557435 110355.708451 151047.202885 201278.528806 267162.611118
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 37002.393129 55261.527352 78926.783326 111167.600638 153198.249361 205344.862475 274051.143889